Could a Real Estate Sales Shift Be Ahead This Fall?

Article from REALTOR® Magazine Media

By: Melissa Dittmann Tracey

The latest housing data caps a lackluster summer, with home sales largely stalled as buyers appear to hold back for the right opportunity. But recent reports suggest the fall season could breathe new life into the housing market.

Mortgage rates have dropped over recent weeks, with loan applications for home purchases—a gauge of buyer demand—climbing by double digits compared to a year ago.

Still, the market remains mostly in a holding pattern. Existing-home sales—which reflect closed transactions for single-family homes, townhomes, condos and co-ops—barely budged last month, down by 0.2% compared to July. That does, however, remain 1.8% higher than a year earlier, the National Association of REALTORS® reported Thursday.

“Home sales have been sluggish over the past few years due to elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “However, mortgage rates are declining, and more inventory is coming to the market, which should boost sales in the coming months.”

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has recently dipped below 6.5%, retreating from nearly 7% earlier in the year. As rates have eased, mortgage applications for home purchases jumped up 18% year-over-year in the past week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday. The rise suggests financially prepared buyers are ready to move—that is, once they find the right home.

Why This Season May Draw More Buyers Out

Housing inventory is opening up, giving home buyers more options. In August, inventory levels rose about 12% compared to a year ago. Homes are also sitting longer: The median time on the market was 31 days in August, up from 26 days a year earlier, according to the latest REALTORS® Confidence Index. Buyers now have more choices—and less of the frenzied pace of years past.

These factors could open the door to more first-time buyers, in particular, who have been largely sidelined due to higher costs and limited choices. First-time buyers made up just 28% of August transactions—well below their historical 40% share prior to 2008. But sales of affordable homes continue to be constrained by a lack of inventory, Yun notes.

A recent housing report suggests more listings, lower prices and less competition could be coming this fall, making up what realtor.com® calls a prime time for home buyers. Their research identified the week of Oct. 12-18 as offering the best buying window of the year.

Alexa Kebalo, a real estate pro with eXp Realty and the 2025 president-elect at Connecticut REALTORS®, sees this playing out in her market. “We actually have what we call a ‘second spring market’ in the fall,” she says. “We see a spike of listings this time of year. Buyers are finding more properties—and more choices are always good. It’s definitely a great opportunity if you’re looking to make a move.”

She also notes that buyers are regaining some negotiating power, something rare in recent years. Inspections and repair requests, for example, are back on the table, and those who came up short in the spring and summer are finding they may have a better shot at finding a home at the price they want this fall. “We’ve actually been able to negotiate more,” Kebalo adds. “It feels more hopeful right now for buyers than what we’ve seen in the past.”

Home Prices Remain Resilient

The median existing-home sales price in August was $422,600, up 2% from a year ago, NAR reports. While some areas are reporting price adjustments, home values overall have remained strong. Only 2% of sales are distressed sales—comprised of foreclosures or short sales—which remains at historical lows, NAR’s data shows.

The typical American homeowner has experienced a cumulative 49% home price appreciation from July 2019 to July 2025. Plus, over the last five years, the average homeowner’s wealth has increased by $140,900, NAR’s research shows. (Check out your market’s home appreciation snapshot with NAR’s exclusive Metro Market Statistics Dashboard.)

“Record-high housing wealth and a record-high stock market will help current homeowners trade up and benefit the upper end of the market,” Yun says.

For some homeowners, that equity has allowed them to pay all cash on their next purchase. Cash buyers comprised 28% of transactions in August, continuing to represent a historical high share of the market, NAR’s data shows.

Regional Outlook

The areas tightest on inventory continue to see some of the steepest rises in home prices—notably, the Northeast. The median home price in August in the Northeast climbed 6.2% month-over-month, reaching $534,200, as the region continues to experience some of the strongest price appreciation in the country.

Meanwhile, the Midwest offers some of the lowest home prices and is the top-performing region for home sales in August, Yun notes. The median home price in the Midwest is 22% below the national median price.

Here’s a closer look at how home sales fared across the country in August:

• Northeast: Existing-home sales fell 4% in August, reaching an annual rate of 480,000. Sales are down 2% compared to a year ago. Median price: $534,200, up 6.2% from a year ago.
• Midwest: Sales rose 2.1% last month, settling in at an annual rate of 960,000. Sales are up 3.2% compared to a year ago. Median price: $330,500, up 4.5% from a year earlier.
• South: Existing-home sales dropped 1.1% in August to an annual rate of 1.83 million. Sales, however, are still up 3.4% compared to a year ago. Median price: $364,100, up slightly by 0.4% compared to August 2024.
• West: Existing-home sales increased 1.4% in August compared to July, reaching an annual rate of 730,000. Sales were down 1.4% from a year earlier. Median price: $624,300, up 0.6% from a year ago.